In addition to the demolition of the planet order as a consequence of the implementation of long-term trends discussed in my erstwhile article, the news of fresh weeks may origin shock with another unpleasant conclusion for Europe. The fresh American administration has not only sharply reversed US policy towards Europe (as well as Canada and Australia), but has besides initiated a rapprochement with Russia. It looks like the fresh American leaders have any peculiar feelings towards Moscow.
This reversal may seem illogical, which is why media are publishing articles claiming that Trump was compromised by Russia. This is simply a typical effort to find a simple answer to complex questions that is suitable for tabloids. It is reasonable to apply the rule that 1 should not explain with a conspiracy explanation what can be explained by nonsubjective long-term trends. Anyway, as Goethe said, “…misunderstandings and laziness possibly origin more errors in the planet than cunning and malice.”
Analyzing long-term trends, we will see many reasons for the US-Russian rapprochement, which should make Europeans worry, because, after all, specified a shift will happen at the expense of Europe.
- Every American administration, starting with president George W. Bush, has tried to reboot relations with Russia. These attempts were never successful, and relations have only gotten worse. But each successive US president believes that he is the 1 who will succeed, due to the fact that he is the best negotiator.
- Trump’s administration desires to repeat president Richard Nixon’s success in breaking the connection between Russia and China, only now in the reverse. Nixon managed to teardrop China distant from the USSR, but this was at a time erstwhile Soviet-Chinese relations were deteriorating. Today, China is heavy integrated into Russian affairs and mostly controls Moscow, so the desire is futile.
- The transactional approach to global politics attracts the American administration with Russia’s vast natural resources, which can be utilized to make profitable deals. Putin, knowing this, constantly hints at the prospects of specified deals.
- The old planet order has been broken, and the United States is actively breaking it, although it previously tried to preserve it. Russia looks like a country that has become a battering ram for the demolition of the old planet order. In another words, the interests of 2 countries coincide here (even three, due to the fact that China is besides interested). If it is possible to end the war with benefits for Russia, the United States will be able to launch akin operations in Greenland or elsewhere.
- There is another area where the interests of the United States, Russia and China coincide. This is namely the weakening of Europe and its separation from America (for China, this has mostly been 1 of its main abroad policy goals, unattainable for decades). no of these centres of power is curious in seeing Europe stay as a centre of power. This is due to the fact that in the “new planet without order” they are all fighting for supremacy.
- To many Americans, Russia seems like a defender of conventional values in a postmodern world, a actual conservative Christian country that stands up to the postmodern agenda they hate. Obviously, mass murder, rape, looting, tortures, kidnapping and another crimes stemming from aggression are not Christian values, but these details are not essential to many. After all, if the US president expresses support for an global criminal, then possibly he is not specified a criminal? You can read more about the function of the Russian Orthodox Church in the aggression here.
- Americans and Russians feel that their countries are akin in any ways. Vast expanses of land, conquered by brave pioneers and cleared of “unwanted natives”, and so on. Americans do not like empires, but they do not consider Russia an empire due to the fact that they know almost nothing about it. Americans have small thought of the multinational, multicultural and multi-confessional imperial nature of Russian statehood.
- Americans love it erstwhile David defeats Goliath. What is amazing is that many of them consider Russia to be David, the weak but blessed bearer of the truth. As a result, NATO is naturally considered to be Goliath, a stupid and dense force. This is where the talk about the Russian invasion being provoked by NATO expansion to the East comes from. Ukraine is simply absent as a country in this picture.
- Also, for any Americans, Ukraine is simply a rebellious state that needs to be returned “back home” to Russia. They compare the Russian-Ukrainian war to the civilian War in the United States, where good northerners must defeat bad southerners and yet reconstruct order on their lands.
- There are almost no people in the fresh American administration who truly know anything about Russia or Ukraine, and the conventional “think tanks” presently have much little influence. Russia has been investing in propaganda in America for decades, while Europe considered the US as a permanent and apparent ally which does not request explanation. Together with Russian money, Russian culture, fear of Russia and another features, this created the celebrated blind spot regarding the country.
- Finally, you can add to these nonsubjective trends the individual sympathies of the 2 old leaders. I presume that Trump is jealous of Putin, who managed to destruct many hated institutions and concentrate power (although it took more than a decade).
You see, we are dealing with deep roots in this relationship. Most of the problems described above are shaped by long-term trends in American policy, and not by the individual preferences of the leader.
After all, akin trends existed before, and they explain the behaviour of the United States at the beginning of the First and Second planet Wars, erstwhile Europe was bleeding and America was counting its profits. A detailed analysis of the historical parallels is beyond the scope of this article, but there are many publications on this subject.
Perhaps there is nothing incorrect with the rapprochement between America and Russia? Unfortunately, this is not the case, due to the fact that this rapprochement will happen at the expense of Europe. This will likely happen in the following way:
- The United States will invest importantly little in European safety (a recent Pentagon memo confirms this).
- In return, Russia will increasingly interfere in European affairs.
- Both countries will be curious in Europe as a marketplace in the long term, but not as an independent power.
What should Europe do in these new, shocking circumstances? First, it needs to strengthen its own defence capabilities. Ukraine, with its large, trained army and the ability to wage modern, high-tech warfare, can play a key function in this regard.
Second, European politicians, diplomats and analysts gotta explain to their American colleagues that US hopes for Russia are futile and will not lead to any affirmative consequences, just as they have in the past. At the same time, they request to stress that Europe has always been a reliable ally. Russia is simply a brutal force, far from its expected Christian foundations. It is the last colonial empire, highly integrated politically and economically with China, with aggressive attitudes towards Europe. knowing these realities will aid adjust American policy in Europe.
Valerii Pekar is simply a president of the board of Decolonization NGO, the author of 4 books, an adjunct prof. at the Kyiv-Mohyla Business School and Business School of the Ukrainian Catholic University, and a erstwhile associate of the National improvement Council.
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